80% Turnout for Nicaragua's Elections Followed by Controversy

On the 6^th of November, Nicaraguans went to the polls to choose their next President. Official election results show that between 75 and 80% of registered voters turned out, and that Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) candidate and current President Daniel Ortega won in a landslide with 62.66% of the vote. Of the five parties on the ballot, the closest opposition was the Independent Liberal Party (PLI), trailing behind with just 31.13% of the vote. More than a week later, the leaders of Europe and North America have yet to call Ortega to congratulate him.

The PLI is alleging “monstrous fraud,” saying that they should have gotten more than 50% of the vote. In the past week, their supporters have caravanned and blocked roads in protests that have mostly been confined to the wealthy neighborhoods of Managua. In northern Nicaragua there have been 3 incidences of politically-related violence, resulting in 4 deaths and dozens of injuries, including the hospitalization of 7 police officers.

While they maintain that 20% of the vote was stolen from them, 10 days later the PLI continue to speak in general terms without specifying in which precincts the fraud was carried out nor have they produced any corroboration for their claims. The European Union, with the largest observer group participating in the elections, appears to vacillate, saying that while there were many “imperfections” in last Sunday’s elections, Daniel Ortega won.

What is going on here? Last Thursday I had the opportunity to talk to Adolfo Pastran, a well-respected Nicaraguan journalist, about the elections.

According to Pastran, it’s clear that Daniel Ortega won the elections. All the polls in months, weeks and days before the elections showed very similar results to the official vote tally. “The opposition was divided,” Pastran points out. “It’s very difficult to beat an incumbent with a divided opposition.” Many people who had never voted for the FSLN before voted for Ortega in what Pastran is calling an overwhelming vote of confidence.

“This doesn’t mean that these people are no longer Liberales or Independents,” he says, “but they are saying ‘I like your programs, I’ll give you another chance.’”

Overall, says Pastran, people feel that the situation in Nicaragua has improved – just one week before the elections polls showed that 70.4% of the populace thought the country was on the right track. “Economically, things are better,” says Pastran. “There are new taxis, new buses, transport and electrical subsidies, fewer people are emigrating…things are visibly better.”

The polls support this: one week before the election, the Ortega administration had an exceptionally high approval rating of 65.2%. Additionally, 72.9% said Ortega’s government gives them hope, 70.4% said health care had improved, 71.7% said education had improved, and 45.3% said poverty was down. It’s hard to compete with those numbers.

In the past, the FSLN’s opposition has run its campaigns based on fear: in 2001 television ads showed images of Saddam Hussein, Gadhafi, Fidel Castro, Osama bin Laden and then Daniel Ortega in military uniform. The standard campaign involved threats that if Ortega were elected, the country would return to war, and impose the draft again along with property confiscations and supply shortages. “Those empty threats don’t work anymore,” says Pastran, “because everyone can see that in the past 5 years we haven’t gone back to the 1980s.” This year, says Pastran, the opposition had absolutely nothing to offer. “They basically said ‘we’re going to keep on all of the current social policies, but we’ll do it better.’”

The PLI claims that on election day, their designated party observers were not allowed into 20% of the polling places. “If that’s so,” says Pastran, “then why did they wait until after the results were known to say so? Why were their observers not clamoring at the polling stations and calling the media?”

Pastran has also called for those who did independent quick counts of the vote – including the the European Union (EU), and the Council of Private Business in Nicaragua – to make those results known so they can be compared with the official results. “If they did rapid counts, why are they not making those public?” Yesterday the Organization of American States (OAS) finally made their count public, saying it matched with official results. The National Council of Universities, which was accredited as a Nicaraguan observer group with 20,000 participants all over the country, reported early on that its quick count was within a few percentage points of the official tally for all parties.

What about the observers? Of the national and international observers present for these elections, some observers from the OAS had trouble getting into polling places but once these difficulties were reported, the situation was remedied. In its official communiqué, the OAS said “In Nicaragua yesterday democracy and peace advanced.” In its final report the OAS cited “inconveniences” which included difficulties in obtaining voter cards prior to elections and access to voting places for some official party observers. In the report the OAS made recommendations for reform of electoral law in those areas, while backing up the official results that Daniel Ortega won. The Latin American Council of Election Experts (CEELA) said the electoral process proceeded positively with “agility in the voting process and effective organization with tranquility and peace.” As to the irregularities alleged by the opposition, CEELA said that members of their group did not find evidence of them. The EU continues to seed doubt, the head of the observer mission said, “The total of irregularities shows many imperfections but as to whether or not Daniel Ortega won, he won. Beyond that I won’t say.”

After remaining quiet during the campaign and refusing to back a particular candidate for the first time since the Somoza years, the United States has now come out to say that the elections were not free and fair. Yesterday the Voice of America, the U.S. government’s official media outlet, called for the OAS to sanction Nicaragua and to annul these elections.

What’s behind all this? Pastran’s analysis of the situation is that Ortega’s policies have managed to please the people of Nicaragua as well as national and international business, and because of that, the current claims of fraud are posturing and will die down soon to avoid creating instability. “They know the elections were good, but the opposition is starting now to try to erode Ortega’s power for the 2016 elections.”

Other analysts have speculated that with the current economic climate in Europe and the United States, these countries may be looking for a pretext to discontinue aid to Nicaragua, and declaring these elections fraudulent will provide them with the excuse they need.

Pastran maintains that the Nicaraguan elections were free and fair. “Except for a few isolated incidence of violence things are generally calm here. The people know how they voted.”

Pastran cites Ortega’s social programs as the reason he won the election by such a wide margin, and tells the story of a woman in rural Nicaragua who received a sack of food from Ortega’s campaign. She told the media “Thank God that Daniel Ortega remembered me. No government has ever remembered me. I have a son who died fighting with the contra and no government ever remembered me until Daniel Ortega.” -- Becca

Nicaragua emerges from the storm clouds

Although Central America finally saw the sun this weekend after nearly two weeks of rain, hurricanes in Mexico and Panama are threatening more rain on the already soaked region. The most severe storm of the rainy season to date, these recent rains have taken a huge toll on Central America leaving 105 people dead, 1 million people affected, thousands of houses destroyed and extensive crop damage. The worst hit is Guatemala where half a million people have been affected and $9.8 million lost in the agricultural sector alone. In El Salvador, 5 feet of rain fell affecting 70% of the country. In Honduras 42 bridges were destroyed. In Costa Rica, 1,000 people were evacuated from their homes.

Here in Nicaragua, there are 13 dead, and 136,000 people affected by the storms. 12,000 families have lost their homes. 185 miles of paved highways are washed out, 465 miles of rural roads are washed out and initial estimates say Nicaragua will lose 3-5% of its most important crop this year: coffee.

At the El Porvenir coffee cooperative, René reports that everyone is fine. While the nearby community of Las Casitas on the slopes of the volcano was evacuated to avoid another tragedy like that community experienced during Hurricane Mitch, once again El Porvenir’s care of its natural forest has protected it. There is no damage to houses and they don’t expect their coffee harvest to be affected. In the community, individuals plant food crops – mostly corn and beans – for their own families’ consumption and also for sale in the local market. Of the corn and beans planted, they have lost about 30%, which means that while co-op members at El Porvenir will have enough food to eat this year, they won’t have the income they were counting on from the sale of the beans and corn, and their families will be in a tough spot. Additionally, 6 horses died during the storms, meaning folks will be left without transport.

What does the damage from this storm mean for the folks we work with in Ciudad Sandino and beyond? In the immediate term, damage from the storm will drive food prices up yet again this year. Costs of other necessary items, most importantly medicines, will likely shoot up as well. Already the cost of the basic basket of goods in Nicaragua for a family of 4 is around $450 per month in a country where unemployment is at 53% and those who do have jobs on average don’t even make 30% of that cost. On a regional level, all this has a cost as well: experts say that over the next several years, 10-20% of Central America’s GDP will go to pay for damage wrought by climate change.

In short, Nicaragua and her battered people can’t afford more natural disasters.

But they’re likely to keep coming. The United Nations recently declared Central America one of the regions most affected by climate change – according to the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD), from 1960-1970, there would be 1 event like this per decade; in the 1980s 2 events; in the 1990s 4; and from 2000-2010 there were 7.

In an interview on the Telesur program Agenda Abierta last week, environmental adviser Halim Jordan noted that 80% of the population of Central America is responsible for only a negligible amount of CO2 emissions, yet this region is suffering disproportionately from storms brought about by climate change, can do nothing to control them, and finds it so hard to recover from them. Consumption in the United States (which emits more CO2 than Europe and China combined) is having a very direct and very negative impact on Central America, and here in Nicaragua people realize it…do those in the U.S. make the connection? – Becca

Java Jive

It’s been a tough year in the coffee world: in April, international coffee prices topped $3 a pound for the first time in 34 years, and while prices have dropped slightly, the price hike is likely here to stay. Heavy rain falls around the world are to blame for last year’s poor harvests, but in the long term, unpredictable weather and rising temperatures due to climate change are affecting premier coffee regions in places like Colombia, where production on some farms is down 70% from just 5 years ago. Coffee plants are sensitive and changes in temperature, rainfall and spells of dryness not only affect productivity, but also the taste of the high end Arabica beans.

With conventional coffee prices staying above $2 per pound, “fair trade is in an awkward position” as Matt Earley from Just Coffee describes it in a recent article on building a better pre-financing model. For 18 years the official Fair Trade Coffee minimum price remained stagnant at $1.41, not even keeping up with inflation. Last year, the price went up to $1.51 including a social premium. Meanwhile market price for conventional coffee is currently at $2.25 per pound.

For many Nicaraguan organic coffee co-ops, this has created quite a dilemma: “In the past,” explains Matt Earley, “enthusiastic farmers turned coffee into [fair trade buyers] knowing [they] would pay more than local buyers ‘coyotes.’ As a result, farmers would tolerate buyers’ partial (or zero) payment on delivery of the coffee and wait for full payment after buyers received the coffee in the United States or Europe. However, in these years of high prices, local buyers pay a price competitive with ‘fair trade’ importers and roasters, and they pay cash on the barrelhead instead of [fair trade buyers’] two or three payments. This welcome development for cash-strapped farmers benefits them in the short-term but damages their cooperatives as they default on contracts with buyers, lose members and weaken as democratic forces in their communities.”

For small farmers, the decision to choose a higher short-term price over a better long-term relationship is a very real one. El Porvenir supports 43 families (más o menos), more than 250 people total. Although they grow their own food, the cash payment they receive for their coffee crop is the only cash they see all year long. Like farmers all over the country, by the time harvest season rolls around, last year’s cash is long gone and co-op members are desperate for money to buy medicines, clothes, shoes and school supplies for their children. Unlike other farmers, El Porvenir already had a much more equitable relationship with its buyers, making it easier for them to turn down cash in hand from the coyotes.

For years, El Porvenir has sold its crop to Their Bucks Coffee knowing that they would pay more than$2 a pound. Additionally, Their Bucks has contributed 100% of its profits from coffee sales to establish a revolving loan fund that the El Porvenir co-op can access for harvesting costs. Their Bucks pays El Porvenir in three installments: 30% in October, 30% in December, and 40% upon shipping, so that the coffee is completely paid for before it ever leaves Nicaragua. A decision to sell to coyotes last year might have benefitted the co-op in the short-term, but they had an agreement with their buyers – reneging on that agreement last year would have meant throwing away a relationship of trust they’ve spent a decade building, and putting at risk the sale of future crops. The El Porvenir co-op followed through on their deal to sell to Their Bucks at $2.25 a pound…and got ready to negotiate this year’s crop in light of higher international prices.

Last week the coffee buyers came to negotiate: Al Jenkins from Their Bucks Coffee in Mt. Pleasant, SC and Jervais Hollowell of Little River Roasting Company in Spartanburg, SC came to Nicaragua to meet with the folks at El Porvenir and brought with them their daughters, Christy and Leland. In their face-to-face negotiations, El Porvenir agreed to sell at least 20,000 lbs of their coffee to Their Bucks, and Their Bucks agreed to pay $2.70 per pound –the $2.25 international price on the day of the negotiations, plus $0.45 per pound organic premium. These successful negotiations mean that the folks at El Porvenir can count on a better price for their crop – including continuing the important upfront payments – and means that Their Bucks can guarantee its growing customer base a supply of the excellent 43 Families brand coffee it markets, a good deal for farmers, buyers and discerning coffee drinkers!

NEW! Look for El Porvenir’s coffee at the Piggly Wiggly grocery store chain – it’s their in-house brand organic coffee, Newton Farms! -- Becca